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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a firm approach regarding Ukraine. Following making threats of "significant consequences" in August should Putin carried on blocking ceasefire talks, the former president eventually enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly affected Putin's ability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality weaken that very independence. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate past, Trump persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian land will please the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not simply about controlling a charred region of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that his increasing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in place the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would require Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting Russia with land that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a decade of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely undermined.

This region is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that constitute a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital if he subsequently opt to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a action that would make renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal sets no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, the plan declares: "Any extremist doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by holding elections in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the plan includes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in law its position of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied land in the Donbas to the government – how should the international community have confidence in Russia this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "strong joint military response" if Russia renew its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not just block the nation accession to NATO but also prevent member states from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the security presence, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Response

Another parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed hostilities – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not