A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
