Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.