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Just 48 hours before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed the progressive now. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.