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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd